| Omni Rankings™ | 2023-2024 Men's college basketball ratings | through 4/8/24 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on current ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | UConn | 98.05% | 82.85% | 53.53% | 36.55% | 26.28% | 17.82% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | North Carolina | 96.42% | 60.60% | 36.24% | 19.02% | 7.38% | 3.56% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston | 94.97% | 73.71% | 52.47% | 37.96% | 24.72% | 13.93% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Purdue | 94.71% | 69.22% | 45.70% | 27.70% | 15.48% | 7.55% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Tennessee | 93.89% | 65.25% | 41.06% | 22.67% | 11.91% | 5.40% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Marquette | 83.07% | 49.78% | 28.17% | 11.94% | 5.61% | 2.15% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Arizona | 92.67% | 69.34% | 45.71% | 28.76% | 13.08% | 7.20% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Iowa State | 91.80% | 71.22% | 47.08% | 21.85% | 13.78% | 8.08% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Illinois | 88.54% | 55.06% | 26.02% | 9.25% | 4.79% | 2.26% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Baylor | 87.01% | 51.49% | 24.09% | 12.44% | 4.31% | 1.89% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Kentucky | 86.40% | 50.72% | 27.32% | 11.07% | 4.98% | 1.82% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Creighton | 87.87% | 61.97% | 32.10% | 16.16% | 7.71% | 3.13% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Kansas | 72.85% | 32.97% | 12.51% | 5.14% | 1.89% | 0.58% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Duke | 85.91% | 55.68% | 23.59% | 13.66% | 6.80% | 2.79% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Alabama | 75.11% | 38.73% | 18.17% | 8.08% | 2.55% | 1.02% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Auburn | 89.03% | 69.98% | 34.67% | 21.59% | 14.27% | 8.81% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | San Diego State | 72.99% | 22.25% | 5.98% | 2.21% | 0.89% | 0.32% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Saint Mary's | 68.68% | 41.46% | 21.25% | 10.35% | 3.65% | 1.62% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Wisconsin | 66.20% | 30.32% | 10.22% | 4.92% | 1.98% | 0.64% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Gonzaga | 79.90% | 53.27% | 25.88% | 13.49% | 6.40% | 2.58% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | South Carolina | 46.51% | 15.56% | 4.72% | 1.37% | 0.37% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Texas Tech | 63.90% | 32.84% | 16.47% | 6.11% | 2.53% | 0.84% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Clemson | 39.59% | 15.98% | 5.25% | 1.92% | 0.43% | 0.13% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | BYU | 74.86% | 36.24% | 15.02% | 4.54% | 2.07% | 0.85% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Washington State | 54.84% | 15.55% | 6.06% | 1.37% | 0.49% | 0.16% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Dayton | 42.54% | 11.08% | 3.98% | 1.31% | 0.26% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Florida | 49.29% | 22.62% | 10.51% | 3.49% | 1.30% | 0.38% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Texas | 64.86% | 24.67% | 11.90% | 4.79% | 1.81% | 0.57% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Utah State | 36.84% | 8.74% | 3.04% | 0.90% | 0.23% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Nebraska | 55.16% | 14.94% | 6.70% | 3.06% | 1.16% | 0.35% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Mississippi State | 48.80% | 18.85% | 8.78% | 3.47% | 0.95% | 0.33% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | 42.77% | 6.33% | 1.59% | 0.42% | 0.12% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Northwestern | 57.23% | 10.62% | 3.22% | 1.04% | 0.37% | 0.12% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Michigan State | 51.20% | 20.34% | 9.71% | 3.94% | 1.11% | 0.40% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Texas A&M | 44.84% | 10.55% | 4.22% | 1.71% | 0.57% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | TCU | 63.16% | 21.30% | 10.04% | 4.14% | 1.53% | 0.46% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Virginia | 12.67% | 2.86% | 0.86% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Colorado State | 22.47% | 6.39% | 2.39% | 0.72% | 0.20% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Boise State | 22.77% | 10.22% | 4.64% | 1.50% | 0.54% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Colorado | 27.94% | 13.42% | 6.53% | 2.30% | 0.90% | 0.28% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Nevada | 57.46% | 18.15% | 7.79% | 3.09% | 0.77% | 0.25% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Drake | 45.16% | 11.28% | 3.91% | 0.76% | 0.24% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Duquesne | 25.14% | 6.50% | 1.34% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | New Mexico | 60.41% | 30.18% | 12.68% | 5.90% | 1.79% | 0.70% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | NC State | 36.10% | 13.88% | 5.08% | 1.30% | 0.38% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Oregon | 53.49% | 19.44% | 6.46% | 2.06% | 0.61% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | McNeese State | 20.10% | 7.00% | 1.44% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | James Madison | 33.80% | 10.62% | 2.28% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Grand Canyon | 31.32% | 13.15% | 4.30% | 1.33% | 0.27% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | UAB | 27.01% | 4.14% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Yale | 10.97% | 3.63% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | College of Charleston | 24.89% | 6.66% | 1.53% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Vermont | 14.09% | 3.38% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Samford | 27.15% | 6.75% | 1.31% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Akron | 12.13% | 3.03% | 0.42% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Oakland | 13.60% | 2.56% | 0.41% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Colgate | 12.99% | 2.35% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Morehead State | 11.46% | 2.19% | 0.26% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | South Dakota State | 8.20% | 1.96% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Long Beach State | 7.33% | 1.42% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | WKU | 16.93% | 3.96% | 0.86% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Saint Peter's | 6.11% | 0.83% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Montana State | 5.29% | 0.73% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Grambling | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Longwood | 5.03% | 0.80% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Howard | 2.14% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Wagner | 1.44% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Stetson | 1.95% | 0.20% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||