| Omni Rankings™ | 2024-2025 Men's college basketball ratings | through 4/7/25 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on pre-tournament ratings and tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Auburn | 98.92% | 77.00% | 60.14% | 39.39% | 21.97% | 11.52% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Florida | 98.12% | 82.22% | 62.95% | 45.83% | 30.57% | 18.06% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Duke | 99.01% | 83.07% | 65.76% | 47.19% | 32.42% | 20.95% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston | 98.13% | 66.44% | 51.79% | 37.30% | 20.60% | 11.99% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Tennessee | 92.61% | 64.11% | 43.17% | 20.16% | 8.42% | 3.74% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Alabama | 95.25% | 73.48% | 48.27% | 22.36% | 12.42% | 6.32% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | St. John's | 91.14% | 60.08% | 31.18% | 12.09% | 5.48% | 2.06% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Michigan State | 93.88% | 68.11% | 39.00% | 19.65% | 8.84% | 3.67% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Iowa State | 90.84% | 66.08% | 38.30% | 19.53% | 8.90% | 3.75% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Texas Tech | 90.81% | 62.83% | 38.46% | 16.66% | 8.36% | 3.53% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Wisconsin | 91.78% | 51.67% | 23.09% | 8.05% | 3.47% | 1.34% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Kentucky | 83.92% | 48.33% | 21.00% | 7.20% | 2.16% | 0.69% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Purdue | 77.47% | 42.70% | 12.13% | 5.51% | 1.62% | 0.51% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Arizona | 89.86% | 65.09% | 21.01% | 10.04% | 4.49% | 1.80% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Maryland | 86.50% | 60.67% | 21.86% | 11.57% | 5.35% | 2.06% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Texas A&M | 75.21% | 39.02% | 11.69% | 4.43% | 1.31% | 0.35% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Michigan | 53.01% | 29.59% | 8.75% | 3.28% | 0.96% | 0.25% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Memphis | 36.16% | 10.23% | 1.60% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Oregon | 65.11% | 23.84% | 4.57% | 1.39% | 0.39% | 0.10% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Clemson | 77.26% | 44.24% | 12.97% | 6.03% | 1.83% | 0.59% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Illinois | 62.89% | 33.12% | 13.47% | 4.28% | 1.18% | 0.35% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | BYU | 60.42% | 31.02% | 13.23% | 4.38% | 1.80% | 0.66% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Missouri | 75.35% | 30.38% | 14.39% | 4.46% | 1.64% | 0.49% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Ole Miss | 47.65% | 14.39% | 4.80% | 1.35% | 0.32% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Marquette | 55.02% | 18.01% | 6.65% | 2.07% | 0.55% | 0.13% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Kansas | 63.23% | 26.99% | 11.02% | 3.22% | 1.12% | 0.31% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Saint Mary's | 67.89% | 20.12% | 8.34% | 2.16% | 0.70% | 0.20% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | UCLA | 68.47% | 27.00% | 14.47% | 4.85% | 1.42% | 0.45% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Gonzaga | 75.38% | 29.10% | 19.83% | 12.11% | 5.26% | 2.43% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Mississippi State | 42.32% | 6.14% | 2.45% | 0.74% | 0.21% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | UConn | 60.25% | 11.91% | 5.26% | 2.03% | 0.66% | 0.17% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Louisville | 61.27% | 15.86% | 8.69% | 3.46% | 1.09% | 0.31% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Creighton | 38.73% | 7.09% | 3.08% | 0.92% | 0.21% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Oklahoma | 39.75% | 5.69% | 1.98% | 0.59% | 0.14% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Baylor | 57.68% | 10.73% | 5.04% | 1.86% | 0.64% | 0.19% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Georgia | 24.62% | 4.37% | 1.84% | 0.64% | 0.14% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Utah State | 31.53% | 7.69% | 2.71% | 0.53% | 0.09% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Vanderbilt | 32.11% | 5.67% | 1.43% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Arkansas | 36.77% | 11.48% | 3.36% | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | New Mexico | 44.98% | 12.96% | 4.23% | 1.16% | 0.26% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | San Diego State | 13.13% | 3.07% | 0.79% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | North Carolina | 39.22% | 14.46% | 5.87% | 2.03% | 0.60% | 0.16% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Drake | 24.65% | 4.90% | 1.15% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | VCU | 39.58% | 16.44% | 5.50% | 1.39% | 0.44% | 0.12% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Texas | 14.32% | 5.30% | 1.39% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Xavier | 22.79% | 9.86% | 3.13% | 0.76% | 0.16% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | McNeese | 22.74% | 6.79% | 0.76% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Liberty | 34.89% | 8.66% | 1.02% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Colorado State | 63.84% | 25.38% | 6.00% | 2.23% | 0.70% | 0.18% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | UC San Diego | 46.99% | 24.89% | 6.79% | 2.37% | 0.64% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Yale | 24.79% | 6.50% | 0.85% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Grand Canyon | 13.50% | 3.72% | 0.35% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Akron | 10.14% | 2.41% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | High Point | 22.53% | 6.27% | 0.67% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Troy | 16.08% | 3.39% | 0.47% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Montana | 8.22% | 0.87% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | UNC Wilmington | 9.19% | 1.88% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Lipscomb | 9.16% | 2.00% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Bryant | 6.12% | 0.91% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Omaha | 8.86% | 1.45% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Robert Morris | 4.75% | 0.74% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Wofford | 7.39% | 1.20% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | SIUE | 1.87% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | American | 0.55% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Norfolk State | 1.88% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Alabama State | 0.83% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Saint Francis (PA) | 0.25% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||