| Omni Rankings™ | 2024-2025 Men's college basketball ratings | through 11/16/24 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on current ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Purdue | 90.87% | 50.12% | 29.73% | 11.66% | 3.65% | 1.09% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Kansas | 83.37% | 37.46% | 17.36% | 5.44% | 2.46% | 0.79% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Auburn | 94.02% | 77.58% | 56.00% | 41.45% | 24.41% | 15.08% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | UConn | 97.55% | 83.47% | 67.03% | 48.33% | 31.37% | 19.94% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | UCF | 90.66% | 23.61% | 11.91% | 2.86% | 0.77% | 0.20% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Marquette | 83.51% | 54.73% | 28.83% | 11.11% | 4.19% | 1.67% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Gonzaga | 92.42% | 79.29% | 54.86% | 39.06% | 28.11% | 16.57% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Kentucky | 93.27% | 77.25% | 50.95% | 37.00% | 18.30% | 8.72% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Iowa State | 92.74% | 64.86% | 31.19% | 19.84% | 7.86% | 2.98% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Iowa | 76.26% | 14.55% | 2.24% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Wisconsin | 87.32% | 44.47% | 24.21% | 8.68% | 3.05% | 1.13% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Florida | 80.43% | 52.56% | 19.99% | 5.93% | 1.98% | 0.63% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Illinois | 84.99% | 68.73% | 22.25% | 10.92% | 4.40% | 1.70% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Nevada | 82.49% | 36.83% | 12.04% | 5.84% | 1.97% | 0.70% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Tennessee | 88.75% | 69.45% | 41.95% | 18.05% | 10.50% | 4.61% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Xavier | 21.36% | 7.54% | 1.76% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Dayton | 49.65% | 19.78% | 7.02% | 1.73% | 0.32% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Indiana | 66.25% | 20.31% | 7.07% | 1.54% | 0.51% | 0.11% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Pitt | 72.40% | 48.16% | 20.61% | 12.40% | 5.48% | 2.56% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Ole Miss | 54.22% | 14.17% | 1.76% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | LSU | 41.23% | 15.09% | 3.30% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Texas Tech | 81.47% | 48.33% | 28.57% | 11.49% | 4.52% | 1.88% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Creighton | 16.16% | 9.73% | 1.70% | 0.41% | 0.11% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Georgia | 30.06% | 6.58% | 1.27% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | College of Charleston | 50.40% | 10.64% | 3.25% | 1.18% | 0.21% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | VCU | 67.48% | 14.11% | 5.00% | 1.73% | 0.62% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | BYU | 67.17% | 30.65% | 13.00% | 3.86% | 1.12% | 0.34% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Texas A&M | 29.85% | 19.33% | 11.93% | 3.89% | 1.43% | 0.50% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | New Mexico | 48.81% | 7.76% | 3.40% | 1.13% | 0.29% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Memphis | 37.15% | 6.07% | 1.78% | 0.55% | 0.11% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Penn State | 65.05% | 42.34% | 23.70% | 9.54% | 5.27% | 2.17% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Baylor | 45.97% | 21.51% | 11.26% | 3.70% | 0.95% | 0.23% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Utah State | 54.03% | 27.32% | 15.35% | 5.57% | 1.59% | 0.44% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Alabama | 34.95% | 17.81% | 7.47% | 2.06% | 0.84% | 0.24% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | San Francisco | 62.85% | 14.91% | 6.08% | 2.58% | 0.75% | 0.23% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Colorado | 51.19% | 8.44% | 3.78% | 1.29% | 0.34% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Houston | 70.15% | 56.72% | 44.65% | 22.75% | 12.82% | 7.03% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Oregon | 32.83% | 9.96% | 2.69% | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Nebraska | 32.52% | 3.98% | 0.91% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | NC State | 49.60% | 10.36% | 3.13% | 1.13% | 0.20% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Clemson | 19.51% | 5.52% | 1.39% | 0.51% | 0.09% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | St. John's | 50.43% | 21.79% | 8.46% | 4.53% | 1.38% | 0.40% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Duke | 83.84% | 73.99% | 34.65% | 21.11% | 13.08% | 6.26% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Loyola Chicago | 3.45% | 0.62% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Oklahoma | 15.08% | 4.69% | 1.41% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Saint Mary's | 58.77% | 26.15% | 7.32% | 1.56% | 0.37% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | North Florida | 45.78% | 10.66% | 1.15% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | UC Irvine | 27.60% | 12.30% | 2.96% | 1.10% | 0.27% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Drake | 33.75% | 6.59% | 1.43% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Louisiana Tech | 50.35% | 20.21% | 7.23% | 1.80% | 0.34% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Florida Atlantic | 78.64% | 52.47% | 27.50% | 10.66% | 3.29% | 0.97% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Arkansas State | 11.25% | 3.65% | 0.62% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | High Point | 17.51% | 2.70% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Northern Colorado | 15.01% | 6.44% | 0.59% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Samford | 19.57% | 6.20% | 0.87% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Central Michigan | 12.68% | 1.88% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | SIUE | 23.74% | 1.74% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | UMass Lowell | 7.26% | 1.26% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | South Dakota State | 6.73% | 1.75% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Yale | 7.58% | 2.62% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 16.49% | 4.65% | 0.88% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Central Connecticut | 9.34% | 0.33% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Norfolk State | 1.25% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Colgate | 1.20% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | McNeese | 5.98% | 1.44% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Utah Valley | 16.63% | 2.38% | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Saint Peter's | 6.32% | 0.80% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Grambling | 2.81% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||