| Omni Rankings™ | 2025-2026 Men's college basketball ratings | through 4/6/26 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on pre-tournament ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Duke | 97.85% | 80.84% | 64.11% | 50.45% | 32.77% | 20.10% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Florida | 98.68% | 78.64% | 57.40% | 35.04% | 20.19% | 10.99% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Arizona | 98.50% | 84.22% | 63.14% | 45.54% | 28.32% | 16.90% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Michigan | 96.91% | 80.88% | 60.62% | 39.53% | 23.50% | 13.43% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Iowa State | 95.68% | 72.92% | 49.77% | 27.06% | 14.54% | 7.46% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Purdue | 96.07% | 72.74% | 47.95% | 21.76% | 10.40% | 4.71% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Houston | 94.46% | 70.33% | 41.62% | 22.71% | 11.88% | 5.80% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | UConn | 93.07% | 54.42% | 27.05% | 8.61% | 2.97% | 0.93% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Michigan State | 87.27% | 50.82% | 29.37% | 10.45% | 4.04% | 1.42% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Illinois | 95.02% | 72.29% | 39.94% | 20.98% | 10.56% | 4.93% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Gonzaga | 91.35% | 57.26% | 26.71% | 9.50% | 3.57% | 1.26% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Virginia | 92.85% | 55.21% | 23.46% | 9.40% | 3.69% | 1.36% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Alabama | 82.86% | 48.28% | 16.93% | 7.27% | 2.73% | 0.96% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Arkansas | 89.73% | 51.48% | 17.13% | 8.49% | 3.29% | 1.20% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Nebraska | 90.42% | 45.15% | 14.65% | 5.28% | 1.81% | 0.55% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Kansas | 83.92% | 39.93% | 10.06% | 4.68% | 1.46% | 0.41% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | St. John's | 77.14% | 49.19% | 15.72% | 8.73% | 3.43% | 1.23% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Vanderbilt | 79.74% | 47.79% | 18.12% | 7.61% | 3.02% | 1.08% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Wisconsin | 83.83% | 43.73% | 13.84% | 6.59% | 2.43% | 0.84% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Texas Tech | 77.12% | 41.32% | 13.75% | 5.62% | 2.00% | 0.67% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Tennessee | 72.73% | 35.77% | 13.89% | 5.07% | 1.81% | 0.60% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | BYU | 59.22% | 26.59% | 10.16% | 2.86% | 0.85% | 0.24% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | North Carolina | 62.74% | 19.02% | 6.28% | 1.93% | 0.57% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Louisville | 64.24% | 33.22% | 18.14% | 5.98% | 2.13% | 0.69% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | UCLA | 71.44% | 36.16% | 17.10% | 5.11% | 1.65% | 0.48% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Saint Mary's | 60.57% | 19.33% | 7.39% | 2.51% | 0.82% | 0.23% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Miami (FL) | 56.85% | 16.45% | 6.85% | 1.68% | 0.43% | 0.10% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Kentucky | 58.94% | 17.16% | 7.57% | 2.40% | 0.74% | 0.21% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Georgia | 61.61% | 12.98% | 5.48% | 1.75% | 0.48% | 0.12% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Villanova | 41.17% | 5.39% | 1.62% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Clemson | 44.50% | 8.60% | 3.33% | 0.91% | 0.24% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Ohio State | 62.51% | 13.48% | 6.73% | 3.26% | 1.07% | 0.32% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | TCU | 37.49% | 5.47% | 2.07% | 0.75% | 0.17% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Iowa | 55.50% | 12.69% | 5.56% | 1.76% | 0.53% | 0.14% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Utah State | 58.83% | 10.25% | 3.86% | 1.35% | 0.35% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Saint Louis | 38.39% | 5.68% | 1.80% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Santa Clara | 41.06% | 9.35% | 3.34% | 0.83% | 0.20% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Missouri | 43.15% | 10.35% | 3.65% | 0.73% | 0.15% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Texas A&M | 39.43% | 9.50% | 2.79% | 0.71% | 0.17% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | UCF | 28.56% | 8.70% | 2.34% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | USF | 35.76% | 13.74% | 5.56% | 1.25% | 0.30% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | VCU | 37.26% | 7.94% | 1.85% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Texas | 20.79% | 7.67% | 2.35% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | NC State | 19.98% | 7.27% | 2.19% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Miami (OH) | 3.84% | 0.62% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | SMU | 23.43% | 7.59% | 1.81% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Akron | 22.88% | 6.27% | 0.90% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | High Point | 16.17% | 3.19% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | McNeese | 20.26% | 6.01% | 0.88% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Northern Iowa | 22.86% | 8.29% | 1.11% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | California Baptist | 16.08% | 2.59% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Troy | 9.58% | 1.05% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Hawai'i | 10.27% | 1.60% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Hofstra | 17.14% | 4.13% | 0.48% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Wright State | 7.15% | 0.81% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Kennesaw State | 8.65% | 1.21% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Penn | 4.98% | 0.75% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | North Dakota State | 12.73% | 2.22% | 0.39% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Furman | 6.93% | 0.72% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Idaho | 5.54% | 0.84% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Queens (NC) | 3.93% | 0.46% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Tennessee State | 4.32% | 0.56% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | UMBC | 1.75% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Howard | 1.34% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | LIU | 1.50% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Prairie View | 0.51% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Lehigh | 0.81% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Siena | 2.15% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||