| Omni Rankings™ | 2024-2025 Men's college basketball ratings | through 1/4/25 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on current ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Tennessee | 95.89% | 68.58% | 44.45% | 28.85% | 15.02% | 7.88% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Duke | 93.05% | 67.00% | 43.03% | 25.45% | 16.32% | 9.21% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Auburn | 95.78% | 78.09% | 64.84% | 50.26% | 37.79% | 25.51% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Iowa State | 94.16% | 73.06% | 54.55% | 33.59% | 15.70% | 7.75% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Florida | 90.66% | 61.88% | 41.67% | 24.66% | 11.06% | 5.23% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Kentucky | 91.07% | 55.90% | 35.67% | 14.23% | 7.69% | 3.42% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Alabama | 92.66% | 58.30% | 25.38% | 11.07% | 5.53% | 2.37% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Mississippi State | 86.24% | 55.32% | 27.36% | 12.30% | 4.76% | 1.89% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Illinois | 90.25% | 52.01% | 31.86% | 15.72% | 6.75% | 2.96% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Houston | 90.62% | 71.64% | 50.05% | 29.54% | 19.28% | 11.11% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Marquette | 76.06% | 52.03% | 26.13% | 9.40% | 4.66% | 1.86% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Michigan State | 80.07% | 50.23% | 23.47% | 11.53% | 4.08% | 1.51% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Memphis | 76.97% | 49.67% | 19.87% | 8.63% | 2.64% | 0.84% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Texas A&M | 73.72% | 42.59% | 11.73% | 5.58% | 2.50% | 0.89% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Gonzaga | 86.67% | 61.54% | 31.42% | 16.69% | 9.69% | 4.89% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Pitt | 84.75% | 46.11% | 20.07% | 10.38% | 4.04% | 1.61% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | UConn | 82.15% | 46.52% | 20.87% | 11.09% | 4.46% | 1.84% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Wisconsin | 64.17% | 24.94% | 8.72% | 3.22% | 1.32% | 0.46% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | West Virginia | 53.48% | 26.91% | 6.27% | 2.61% | 1.02% | 0.31% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Oklahoma | 46.03% | 18.52% | 4.86% | 1.38% | 0.26% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Utah State | 54.23% | 24.75% | 9.03% | 3.52% | 0.94% | 0.26% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Oregon | 55.65% | 22.52% | 7.75% | 1.83% | 0.62% | 0.16% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Purdue | 69.26% | 20.39% | 8.93% | 2.96% | 1.15% | 0.38% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Kansas | 50.62% | 23.61% | 12.73% | 5.33% | 1.91% | 0.70% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Nebraska | 51.68% | 21.88% | 7.95% | 2.58% | 0.70% | 0.20% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | UCLA | 66.67% | 30.50% | 11.21% | 4.09% | 1.73% | 0.62% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Michigan | 67.14% | 32.20% | 18.77% | 6.55% | 3.16% | 1.23% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Ole Miss | 40.75% | 12.95% | 5.70% | 2.09% | 0.52% | 0.13% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Louisville | 55.94% | 15.47% | 7.64% | 2.67% | 0.64% | 0.16% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Baylor | 58.49% | 13.63% | 7.67% | 3.69% | 1.67% | 0.60% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Vanderbilt | 34.68% | 8.34% | 2.74% | 0.78% | 0.25% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Ohio State | 60.58% | 20.77% | 9.72% | 4.54% | 1.56% | 0.55% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | San Diego State | 39.42% | 10.22% | 3.76% | 1.37% | 0.35% | 0.09% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Arizona | 65.32% | 23.48% | 11.05% | 4.62% | 2.14% | 0.85% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Clemson | 41.51% | 7.57% | 3.63% | 1.45% | 0.54% | 0.16% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Missouri | 44.06% | 10.38% | 4.53% | 1.35% | 0.27% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | St. John's | 59.25% | 23.44% | 12.43% | 5.59% | 1.78% | 0.59% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | SMU | 32.86% | 10.63% | 4.40% | 0.98% | 0.31% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Georgia | 33.33% | 10.27% | 2.44% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | North Carolina | 48.32% | 19.73% | 6.87% | 2.13% | 0.55% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Penn State | 15.81% | 6.18% | 2.84% | 0.97% | 0.28% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Texas Tech | 33.57% | 16.92% | 9.77% | 4.47% | 1.76% | 0.71% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Drake | 30.74% | 5.19% | 1.36% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | UCF | 20.90% | 7.23% | 2.09% | 0.41% | 0.12% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Arkansas | 23.45% | 8.49% | 2.58% | 0.53% | 0.16% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Arizona State | 45.77% | 19.11% | 6.27% | 2.22% | 0.53% | 0.13% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Liberty | 53.97% | 23.68% | 6.90% | 2.18% | 0.47% | 0.10% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | VCU | 46.52% | 21.87% | 4.62% | 1.77% | 0.64% | 0.17% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | UC San Diego | 35.83% | 9.78% | 2.32% | 0.58% | 0.17% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | College of Charleston | 17.85% | 4.36% | 0.70% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Furman | 15.25% | 3.01% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Lipscomb | 13.33% | 3.75% | 0.57% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | McNeese | 26.28% | 8.62% | 1.11% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Grand Canyon | 23.03% | 8.13% | 1.46% | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Arkansas State | 19.93% | 5.90% | 1.11% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Yale | 23.94% | 9.73% | 2.41% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | South Dakota State | 9.38% | 2.78% | 0.57% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Kent State | 9.75% | 1.27% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | High Point | 13.76% | 3.07% | 0.43% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Central Connecticut | 7.34% | 0.92% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | UMass Lowell | 8.93% | 1.27% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Northern Colorado | 9.34% | 1.73% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Merrimack | 4.26% | 0.88% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Bucknell | 1.58% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Norfolk State | 4.22% | 0.71% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 6.95% | 1.18% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Bethune-Cookman | 1.89% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Little Rock | 2.23% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||