| Omni Rankings™ | 2024-2025 Men's college basketball ratings | through 2/16/25 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on current ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Auburn | 98.22% | 78.35% | 61.94% | 45.64% | 30.09% | 20.01% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Duke | 97.05% | 76.32% | 55.43% | 38.22% | 22.38% | 13.88% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Florida | 96.01% | 61.77% | 38.80% | 26.90% | 15.60% | 8.17% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Alabama | 96.64% | 68.64% | 46.86% | 23.47% | 12.70% | 5.85% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Houston | 96.62% | 74.74% | 52.39% | 35.86% | 22.84% | 12.72% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Texas A&M | 88.92% | 53.53% | 25.04% | 8.99% | 3.38% | 1.10% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Tennessee | 94.19% | 72.67% | 47.45% | 23.40% | 11.22% | 5.73% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Missouri | 83.96% | 45.94% | 20.71% | 7.09% | 2.73% | 1.05% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Texas Tech | 91.15% | 60.32% | 38.41% | 17.05% | 8.43% | 4.19% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Kentucky | 82.89% | 48.13% | 22.64% | 8.80% | 3.32% | 1.33% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Purdue | 89.66% | 54.45% | 34.32% | 15.03% | 6.83% | 2.73% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Wisconsin | 85.67% | 53.66% | 22.88% | 12.54% | 6.20% | 2.57% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Mississippi State | 76.26% | 35.77% | 12.92% | 3.94% | 1.32% | 0.36% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Iowa State | 88.87% | 56.90% | 26.81% | 16.76% | 8.49% | 3.83% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Michigan | 81.74% | 36.65% | 11.51% | 4.95% | 1.65% | 0.59% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Michigan State | 84.29% | 57.91% | 19.26% | 9.74% | 4.10% | 1.74% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Ole Miss | 62.60% | 25.96% | 5.76% | 2.09% | 0.61% | 0.18% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Arizona | 68.04% | 44.87% | 18.41% | 9.90% | 4.27% | 1.97% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Maryland | 77.90% | 36.05% | 14.03% | 7.62% | 3.24% | 1.20% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | UCLA | 78.36% | 51.07% | 23.06% | 8.96% | 3.81% | 1.34% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Louisville | 55.26% | 25.04% | 8.36% | 3.74% | 1.47% | 0.47% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Clemson | 62.93% | 30.28% | 17.26% | 6.52% | 2.57% | 0.88% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | St. John's | 65.41% | 34.66% | 15.40% | 5.60% | 1.97% | 0.74% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Illinois | 64.33% | 27.41% | 14.39% | 4.92% | 1.89% | 0.73% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Kansas | 72.16% | 41.03% | 19.10% | 6.78% | 2.70% | 1.08% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Texas | 52.75% | 14.36% | 5.42% | 1.34% | 0.32% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Vanderbilt | 40.08% | 15.73% | 4.98% | 1.13% | 0.28% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Ohio State | 67.92% | 19.48% | 9.05% | 4.06% | 1.61% | 0.52% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | New Mexico | 50.18% | 15.63% | 7.46% | 2.25% | 0.75% | 0.20% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Gonzaga | 75.59% | 32.76% | 17.85% | 10.97% | 5.44% | 2.40% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Baylor | 68.71% | 18.58% | 8.88% | 3.88% | 1.32% | 0.48% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Saint Mary's | 56.90% | 13.32% | 7.06% | 3.18% | 1.18% | 0.44% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Marquette | 43.10% | 8.20% | 3.81% | 1.47% | 0.46% | 0.14% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Georgia | 31.29% | 4.77% | 1.43% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Arkansas | 24.41% | 5.14% | 1.48% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Creighton | 49.82% | 15.45% | 7.34% | 2.20% | 0.73% | 0.19% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Memphis | 32.08% | 5.39% | 1.59% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | BYU | 59.92% | 28.96% | 11.77% | 3.57% | 1.15% | 0.32% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Oregon | 47.25% | 11.95% | 4.22% | 0.96% | 0.21% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Wake Forest | 27.84% | 9.85% | 2.55% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | SMU | 17.55% | 5.28% | 2.02% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | West Virginia | 18.12% | 5.51% | 2.13% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Nebraska | 34.59% | 13.30% | 4.09% | 0.98% | 0.23% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | UConn | 24.49% | 9.72% | 4.66% | 1.38% | 0.43% | 0.12% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Utah State | 12.57% | 3.93% | 1.51% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | VCU | 44.74% | 18.14% | 5.30% | 2.11% | 0.73% | 0.20% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Drake | 21.64% | 7.72% | 1.49% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Liberty | 22.10% | 4.79% | 0.76% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | UC San Diego | 31.96% | 15.58% | 4.01% | 1.45% | 0.40% | 0.12% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Yale | 37.40% | 11.48% | 1.72% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | McNeese | 15.71% | 4.65% | 0.44% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Akron | 18.26% | 2.90% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Grand Canyon | 11.13% | 2.25% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | High Point | 23.74% | 5.44% | 0.84% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Arkansas State | 14.33% | 3.16% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | UNC Wilmington | 10.34% | 1.62% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | South Dakota State | 17.11% | 3.91% | 0.67% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Chattanooga | 8.85% | 1.47% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Lipscomb | 16.04% | 3.18% | 0.46% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 5.81% | 1.01% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Northern Colorado | 11.08% | 1.79% | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Norfolk State | 3.38% | 0.40% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Quinnipiac | 2.15% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Southern U | 1.21% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Bryant | 3.99% | 0.33% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Central Connecticut | 2.95% | 0.33% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | American | 0.50% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Little Rock | 1.28% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||