| Omni Rankings™ | 2025-2026 Men's college basketball ratings | through 3/3/26 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on current ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Duke | 98.91% | 85.32% | 68.90% | 55.90% | 37.75% | 23.81% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Florida | 97.42% | 79.15% | 61.91% | 43.15% | 24.89% | 14.19% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Michigan | 97.80% | 86.88% | 69.28% | 54.02% | 35.12% | 20.76% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Arizona | 97.37% | 79.43% | 61.67% | 41.73% | 24.40% | 13.33% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Illinois | 96.57% | 79.81% | 55.35% | 28.70% | 14.29% | 6.53% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Alabama | 91.17% | 57.83% | 30.46% | 10.13% | 3.82% | 1.24% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Houston | 95.47% | 72.29% | 45.37% | 21.82% | 9.90% | 4.35% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Michigan State | 93.44% | 63.22% | 38.61% | 13.09% | 5.32% | 1.92% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | UConn | 89.63% | 54.53% | 27.71% | 8.09% | 2.85% | 0.88% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Purdue | 91.67% | 63.96% | 32.91% | 14.04% | 5.63% | 2.17% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Iowa State | 91.06% | 63.78% | 38.76% | 14.48% | 6.11% | 2.24% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Arkansas | 85.54% | 47.77% | 19.41% | 7.02% | 2.42% | 0.74% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Tennessee | 84.25% | 51.54% | 17.01% | 7.40% | 2.60% | 0.81% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Gonzaga | 85.33% | 51.20% | 14.93% | 7.75% | 2.89% | 0.92% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Nebraska | 84.26% | 48.32% | 14.98% | 6.45% | 2.12% | 0.66% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Vanderbilt | 83.98% | 39.64% | 9.08% | 4.34% | 1.39% | 0.39% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Texas Tech | 85.46% | 54.04% | 15.54% | 8.72% | 3.45% | 1.21% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Virginia | 73.49% | 39.90% | 12.00% | 5.03% | 1.61% | 0.49% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | St. John's | 78.01% | 40.03% | 10.50% | 5.03% | 1.69% | 0.49% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Kansas | 73.65% | 37.16% | 10.73% | 4.15% | 1.28% | 0.35% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Louisville | 68.65% | 37.85% | 15.38% | 5.57% | 1.92% | 0.58% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Texas | 60.22% | 22.68% | 9.96% | 2.41% | 0.66% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Kentucky | 63.49% | 24.48% | 8.97% | 2.62% | 0.72% | 0.18% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Georgia | 57.18% | 26.58% | 11.43% | 2.69% | 0.77% | 0.19% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Texas A&M | 52.64% | 19.47% | 8.66% | 1.88% | 0.50% | 0.11% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | UCLA | 59.62% | 17.82% | 7.07% | 1.94% | 0.50% | 0.12% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | North Carolina | 52.22% | 21.85% | 8.90% | 2.14% | 0.58% | 0.13% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Missouri | 50.84% | 10.13% | 3.40% | 0.71% | 0.14% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Wisconsin | 57.19% | 12.64% | 6.04% | 2.20% | 0.64% | 0.16% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Auburn | 51.84% | 6.80% | 2.40% | 0.79% | 0.17% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Saint Mary's | 58.60% | 13.31% | 6.58% | 2.57% | 0.76% | 0.21% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Iowa | 47.61% | 6.67% | 2.68% | 1.08% | 0.28% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Cincinnati | 52.39% | 7.93% | 3.36% | 1.44% | 0.40% | 0.10% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Ohio State | 41.40% | 7.27% | 2.99% | 0.94% | 0.22% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | TCU | 48.16% | 5.97% | 2.01% | 0.63% | 0.13% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | BYU | 42.81% | 7.63% | 3.13% | 0.95% | 0.23% | 0.05% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Villanova | 49.16% | 9.56% | 3.14% | 0.64% | 0.12% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Saint Louis | 47.78% | 19.05% | 7.38% | 1.67% | 0.43% | 0.09% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Oklahoma | 40.38% | 9.28% | 2.90% | 0.61% | 0.12% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Clemson | 47.36% | 16.46% | 6.90% | 1.39% | 0.34% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Miami (FL) | 27.25% | 11.76% | 4.66% | 0.99% | 0.26% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Indiana | 15.58% | 5.52% | 1.76% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | USF | 36.51% | 10.06% | 2.58% | 0.51% | 0.10% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | UCF | 14.26% | 3.64% | 1.08% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | NC State | 25.52% | 8.20% | 3.08% | 0.62% | 0.14% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Utah State | 31.35% | 11.71% | 2.96% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Akron | 26.35% | 7.49% | 1.02% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | McNeese | 21.99% | 5.49% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Belmont | 26.51% | 8.42% | 1.21% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | High Point | 14.54% | 3.66% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Sam Houston | 16.02% | 2.66% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Hofstra | 15.74% | 3.36% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Yale | 14.67% | 3.29% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Utah Valley | 15.75% | 3.82% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | St. Thomas (MN) | 14.46% | 2.66% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Navy | 8.94% | 1.72% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | UC Irvine | 8.33% | 1.50% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Arkansas State | 10.37% | 1.61% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Robert Morris | 6.56% | 0.85% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | ETSU | 4.53% | 0.61% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Northern Colorado | 8.83% | 1.28% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Merrimack | 3.43% | 0.51% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Tennessee State | 1.09% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Howard | 1.54% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | UMBC | 2.20% | 0.35% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Central Arkansas | 2.58% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | LIU | 0.65% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Bethune-Cookman | 0.45% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||