| Omni Rankings™ | 2025-2026 Women's college basketball ratings | through 3/2/26 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on current ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | UConn | 99.79% | 94.71% | 86.15% | 76.00% | 60.08% | 39.78% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Texas | 98.39% | 83.99% | 66.37% | 45.76% | 17.79% | 7.86% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | UCLA | 99.37% | 91.55% | 78.58% | 58.33% | 36.88% | 19.49% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | South Carolina | 99.50% | 89.65% | 76.92% | 63.77% | 37.18% | 19.09% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Iowa | 95.73% | 72.01% | 41.79% | 12.00% | 3.36% | 0.79% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | LSU | 97.65% | 82.47% | 65.13% | 27.47% | 13.17% | 4.95% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Michigan | 97.48% | 80.14% | 61.24% | 31.00% | 9.65% | 3.38% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Vanderbilt | 95.92% | 70.89% | 43.96% | 9.31% | 3.85% | 1.04% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Ohio State | 92.62% | 68.91% | 36.11% | 6.72% | 2.49% | 0.59% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Oklahoma | 89.29% | 60.84% | 21.64% | 6.69% | 1.17% | 0.22% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Maryland | 92.69% | 68.33% | 22.21% | 5.04% | 1.36% | 0.26% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | TCU | 93.04% | 66.42% | 37.22% | 10.39% | 2.83% | 0.65% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Duke | 89.59% | 70.05% | 15.97% | 8.33% | 2.15% | 0.47% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | West Virginia | 89.92% | 55.16% | 11.37% | 4.42% | 1.28% | 0.27% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Minnesota | 90.48% | 56.46% | 17.25% | 7.48% | 1.48% | 0.32% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Louisville | 87.76% | 55.34% | 7.53% | 3.65% | 1.24% | 0.26% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Michigan State | 83.01% | 39.02% | 4.13% | 1.68% | 0.46% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | North Carolina | 74.50% | 35.47% | 9.13% | 3.42% | 0.56% | 0.10% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Kentucky | 87.68% | 41.40% | 6.95% | 2.28% | 0.55% | 0.09% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Alabama | 69.92% | 21.50% | 2.22% | 0.63% | 0.07% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | USC | 69.15% | 25.59% | 10.20% | 1.79% | 0.30% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Georgia | 57.53% | 18.83% | 3.31% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Baylor | 68.97% | 28.82% | 7.29% | 1.57% | 0.18% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Ole Miss | 63.37% | 20.95% | 6.74% | 0.66% | 0.13% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Texas Tech | 58.97% | 18.53% | 7.64% | 0.86% | 0.20% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 63.44% | 14.17% | 6.65% | 1.55% | 0.20% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Notre Dame | 70.76% | 14.26% | 6.80% | 1.15% | 0.23% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Tennessee | 57.04% | 16.93% | 5.94% | 0.87% | 0.12% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | NC State | 57.85% | 6.65% | 3.06% | 1.20% | 0.21% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Iowa State | 47.99% | 3.89% | 1.34% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Washington | 50.27% | 8.01% | 3.25% | 0.99% | 0.13% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Illinois | 72.35% | 4.58% | 1.89% | 0.66% | 0.15% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Texas A&M | 27.65% | 0.71% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Villanova | 49.73% | 7.86% | 3.16% | 0.96% | 0.12% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Oregon | 52.01% | 4.52% | 1.64% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Nebraska | 42.15% | 3.68% | 1.43% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 42.96% | 10.54% | 3.09% | 0.36% | 0.04% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Princeton | 29.24% | 2.96% | 0.85% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Syracuse | 36.56% | 5.40% | 1.86% | 0.29% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Richmond | 41.03% | 10.13% | 3.38% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Colorado | 24.59% | 6.37% | 1.58% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | BYU | 12.04% | 2.31% | 0.42% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Rice | 31.03% | 8.03% | 1.13% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Mississippi State | 19.38% | 5.04% | 0.67% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Kansas | 23.09% | 6.45% | 0.94% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | South Dakota State | 30.85% | 6.81% | 1.62% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Fairfield | 30.08% | 5.22% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Murray State | 12.32% | 1.65% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | James Madison | 25.50% | 6.51% | 0.76% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Colorado State | 16.99% | 2.98% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Gonzaga | 12.24% | 2.66% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Louisiana Tech | 9.52% | 1.56% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Ball State | 10.08% | 1.80% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Montana State | 10.41% | 3.23% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Western Illinois | 6.96% | 1.18% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | UC Irvine | 7.31% | 1.35% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | McNeese | 10.71% | 2.31% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Vermont | 7.38% | 1.45% | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Green Bay | 4.08% | 0.45% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Navy | 2.52% | 0.29% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Abilene Christian | 2.35% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | College of Charleston | 4.27% | 0.52% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | High Point | 0.28% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Norfolk State | 0.21% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 0.63% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Central Arkansas | 1.61% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Chattanooga | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Southern U | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||