| Omni Rankings™ | 2025-2026 Women's college basketball ratings | through 4/5/26 games | |||||||||||||||||
| NCAA probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities based on pre-tournament ratings and projected tournament bracket | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome realized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Outcome unrealized | |||||||||||||||||||
| Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Reaching | Winning | ||||||||||||||
| Seed | Team | final 32 | final 16 | quarterfinals | semifinals | final | tournament | ||||||||||||
| 1 | UConn | 99.20% | 95.59% | 87.84% | 78.41% | 57.83% | 38.89% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | South Carolina | 99.66% | 91.29% | 80.26% | 65.96% | 29.59% | 15.68% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | UCLA | 98.99% | 93.18% | 83.38% | 61.46% | 43.78% | 22.97% | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Texas | 98.57% | 89.21% | 72.89% | 54.20% | 25.86% | 10.77% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Michigan | 98.02% | 77.90% | 52.96% | 22.09% | 6.91% | 1.84% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | LSU | 98.86% | 86.31% | 68.09% | 27.89% | 15.66% | 5.77% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Iowa | 97.06% | 77.86% | 45.24% | 13.21% | 2.77% | 0.66% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Vanderbilt | 97.48% | 69.03% | 36.36% | 6.37% | 2.02% | 0.47% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Ohio State | 97.66% | 66.73% | 39.26% | 7.38% | 2.49% | 0.63% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | TCU | 94.94% | 66.67% | 36.64% | 10.23% | 2.05% | 0.47% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Duke | 94.67% | 69.12% | 21.92% | 4.81% | 1.56% | 0.29% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Louisville | 93.15% | 72.33% | 32.89% | 10.53% | 2.40% | 0.46% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | West Virginia | 90.36% | 55.87% | 14.79% | 6.66% | 1.43% | 0.26% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Minnesota | 92.62% | 63.95% | 10.59% | 3.45% | 1.02% | 0.17% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Oklahoma | 86.90% | 49.47% | 8.48% | 3.57% | 0.52% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | North Carolina | 89.81% | 47.11% | 5.06% | 2.18% | 0.54% | 0.09% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Maryland | 88.42% | 49.56% | 5.68% | 2.56% | 0.67% | 0.12% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Michigan State | 82.00% | 44.00% | 7.27% | 2.97% | 0.42% | 0.06% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Ole Miss | 75.41% | 30.02% | 3.25% | 0.73% | 0.14% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Kentucky | 70.24% | 33.77% | 7.59% | 2.98% | 0.54% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Alabama | 67.30% | 20.18% | 4.88% | 0.77% | 0.08% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Baylor | 52.88% | 16.44% | 2.74% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Washington | 69.18% | 25.88% | 10.44% | 1.92% | 0.25% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Notre Dame | 82.77% | 31.03% | 14.04% | 1.77% | 0.42% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Illinois | 58.63% | 19.76% | 6.93% | 0.71% | 0.14% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Georgia | 60.43% | 14.70% | 4.37% | 0.54% | 0.05% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Texas Tech | 52.32% | 7.37% | 2.82% | 0.35% | 0.07% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | NC State | 57.14% | 13.67% | 5.49% | 1.06% | 0.14% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Oregon | 61.16% | 7.38% | 2.71% | 0.77% | 0.09% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Oklahoma State | 66.96% | 5.24% | 2.15% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Clemson | 30.55% | 1.50% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Iowa State | 57.94% | 2.75% | 0.93% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Syracuse | 42.06% | 1.51% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | USC | 69.45% | 7.19% | 3.30% | 1.17% | 0.14% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Princeton | 33.04% | 1.41% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | Virginia Tech | 38.84% | 3.22% | 0.88% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Tennessee | 42.86% | 8.28% | 2.82% | 0.44% | 0.04% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Villanova | 47.68% | 6.23% | 2.26% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Arizona State | 17.31% | 2.90% | 0.60% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Virginia | 22.27% | 4.20% | 0.98% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | Colorado | 41.37% | 11.05% | 3.08% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Fairfield | 17.23% | 2.09% | 0.32% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | South Dakota State | 30.82% | 6.83% | 1.67% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Richmond | 18.78% | 4.90% | 0.67% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Nebraska | 28.33% | 8.81% | 1.47% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Rhode Island | 32.70% | 6.01% | 0.84% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | James Madison | 29.76% | 8.84% | 1.07% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Gonzaga | 24.59% | 4.78% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Colorado State | 18.00% | 4.07% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Murray State | 11.58% | 1.96% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Western Illinois | 10.19% | 1.37% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Idaho | 13.10% | 2.46% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Green Bay | 7.38% | 1.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | Miami (OH) | 9.64% | 1.52% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Vermont | 6.85% | 1.48% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | College of Charleston | 5.33% | 0.72% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | UC San Diego | 5.06% | 0.62% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | Howard | 2.34% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | High Point | 2.52% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 2.94% | 0.34% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Jacksonville | 1.14% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | Holy Cross | 1.98% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Missouri State | 0.89% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | SFA | 0.54% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | California Baptist | 1.01% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Southern U | 0.25% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | Samford | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | UTSA | 0.80% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||||||||||
| © Omni Rankings | |||||||||||||||||||